Sunday, July 15, 2012

Baseball: Red Sox are underachievers in need of leaders

One of the sacred numbers in today?s world of baseball analysis is runs differential, sort of the team equivalent of hockey?s plus-minus. Through the years, it has proven that the more a team outscores its opponents, the better.

By that standard, the 2012 Red Sox are not hustling underachievers fighting to overcome injuries and stay in the race. Uh-uh. They are underachievers who should be battling the Yankees for the AL East lead, not hanging on in the wild-card hunt.

Through 87 games, Boston had outscored its opponents by 45 runs. That?s a lot ? half a run a game. The Sox should be well above .500, not hovering around it. That they are essentially a win-one, lose-one team shows that what Boston needs for the rest of the season is not better hitting, better pitching or better fielding.

It needs leadership.

To date, the Sox have failed to hit or pitch in the clutch, and they need players who can actually do that, rather than just talk about it.

At the break, Boston was 9-12 in one-run games and 1-5 in extra-inning games. The Red Sox also had lost three games in the bottom of the ninth. If Boston were 12-9 in one-run games and even 3-3 in extra innings, it would have been 10 games over .500 at the break.

The Red Sox? spiritual leader is Dustin Pedroia, but injuries have reduced his offensive effectiveness to the point where he can?t be relied on for the game-changing hit. As he gets healthier ? actually, IF he gets healthier is a more realistic perspective ? perhaps Pedroia will turn into a go-to hitter again.

Last September, when everything was falling apart, Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury were Boston?s two best offensive players. So, perhaps the return of Ellsbury to the lineup will provide that one more hit the 2012 Sox have seemed to lack.

While David Ortiz is having a wonderful year statistically and is the best DH in the league, which automatically means in all of baseball, Ortiz clearly has slipped from his spot as a game-deciding hitter. In his first four years with the Red Sox, Ortiz had nine game-ending home runs. In the last six years, he has had two of them ? and none since Aug. 29, 2009. This year, 20 of his 23 homers have been hit in the first five innings, and none of his three late-game home runs have made a difference.

Not all of that is his fault, and a lot of it is Adrian Gonzalez?s fault. Since Ortiz is the only Sox hitter who scares a team in the late innings, he doesn?t get much to hit. If Gonzalez became a force, Ortiz would get more pitches to hit. Gonzalez, however, has shown a complete inability to deliver in the clutch this year, for most of last season, and especially last September.

Since June 8, Gonzalez has lifted his average from .270 to .283 by going 32 for 106. Of those 32 hits, 26 have been singles, one a home run. He has hit two homers of consequence all season ? one in Detroit on April 8 in the sixth, breaking a 7-7 tie in a game Boston eventually lost ? and another on May 27 at Fenway, a three-run belt in the seventh to turn a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 lead versus Tampa Bay, but again, the Sox eventually lost.

When is the last time Gonzalez had a game-changing hit? Probably that homer against Tampa Bay, and even then, Alfredo Aceves could not deliver a clutch save.

During Boston?s skid before the All-Star break, the slump that destroyed all the momentum it had created by going 11-3 in the middle of June, Aceves blew two saves, and both times they were psychologically excruciating, one being the difference between not getting swept in Oakland, the other the difference in not being able to get a split with the Yankees.

Timing is everything.

The clutch failures of the bullpen and the offense would not be so important, however, if Boston had gotten leadership from the biggest disappointments of the season to date ? Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.

What a dismal showing by those two, their failures to deliver in the clutch never more obvious than in their poor performances against New York. Both were part of last September?s collapse, and their reactions to it are telling. Beckett said essentially ?big deal? and went about his business as if nothing had happened. Lester was vocal in conceding that mistakes were made and things had to change, and they would.

Guess what? The guy who sounded like he didn?t care, Beckett, is 4-7 with a 4.43 ERA. The guy who sounded like he did care, Lester, is 5-6 with a 4.43 ERA.

Actions speak louder than words. Jonathan Papelbon was like that, too ? he?d say ?blame me? when he blew a save, which was nice, but when Boston needed one save ? just one ? to make the playoffs last September, he blew two of them.

The expanded wild-card format has provided the Red Sox with a chance to qualify for postseason play, a chance they really don?t deserve. As diluted as the playoff thing has become, .500 won?t be enough to make it, so Boston has to be better in the second half.

Even with all the injuries factored in, the Red Sox should be better than they have been. They just need something that can?t go on and off the disabled list, or be measured numerically.

Leadership.

Baseball Jeopardy

Answers: 1. The last Red Sox manager who never played major league baseball.

2. After the Yankees with 27, the American League franchise that has won the most World Series titles.

3. The only player still an active major leaguer who was in the game when the Red Sox last suffered a no-hit loss, on April 22, 1993, in Seattle.

Questions below.

LaHair as a Yankee?
As the trade deadline approaches, All-Star Bryan LaHair?s name will be mentioned prominently as possible trade bait. If the Cubs decide to deal him, LaHair?s left-handed bat would look awfully good in the uniform of a team with a short porch in right field. In the American League, that would include the Yankees, Orioles ? Jim Thome is not the answer there ? Indians and Rangers, but not the Red Sox. A reader reminds us, by the way, that LaHair?s baseball heritage includes a lot of home runs in Little League in Thompson, Conn. ? I have not seen Bobby Valentine?s movie about young players in the Dominican Republic ? ?Ballplayer: Peletoro? ? and will probably wait for the DVD. Baseball?s powers are critical of it, but it is undoubtedly accurate in its portrayal of how organized baseball has treated budding stars there. After all, this is a business that pays commissioner Bud Selig about $1.83 million a month, and pays a rookie umpire $1,900 a month. Since it began in 1869, the underlying theme of professional baseball has always been: If it?s possible to take advantage of someone, it will be done. ? Birthday greetings to two octogenarians who played for the Sox: Southpaw pitcher Jack Harshman, the second alum of Herbert Hoover High in San Diego to play for Boston, after Ted Williams, turned 85 on Thursday, and Len Okrie, who was also Boston?s bullpen coach in the early ?60s, turns 89 tomorrow.

Aces for Albers
Valentine, who it seemed was a little quick with the hook on Franklin Morales Friday night in Tampa even though it worked out, has done an excellent job using Matt Albers so far, even if the manager does call him ?Alberts.? Albers was also great for Terry Francona for most of last season before falling off a cliff late. That happened the first week of August. From Opening Day to the end of July, Albers? ERA was 2.09. From Aug. 1 to closing day, it was 9.97. ? For all of the millions of dollars teams spend on scouting, it?s still a lot like playing the stock market, and there is no proof that scouting provides better results than throwing darts at some names on a piece of corkboard. Witness the Angels? Mark Trumbo, an 18th-rounder in 2004, and Mike Trout, a first-rounder in 2009. Baseball?s amateur draft ? the world?s biggest slot machine. ? Since hitting home runs in three straight games in Philadelphia from May 18-20, Mike Aviles has hit one. ? Through Friday night?s game in Tampa, the Red Sox had committed 19 errors in 22 games ? way too many for a good team. ? No left-handed batter as fast as Jacoby Ellsbury should ground into as many double plays as he does.

Catching up with?
Dave Henderson, of 1986 postseason reknown, works home games on the Mariners? broadcast staff, as does Dave Valle, who had a brief and unsuccessful career catching for the Sox in 1994; flash-in-the-pan center fielder Dwayne Hosey of the 1995-96 Red Sox is a coach with the Brewers? Double-A farm team in Huntsville, Ala.; Al Nipper, who in 1984 had a better rookie season than Roger Clemens, is a pitching coach in the Tigers? farm system; Hall of Famer Tom Seaver, whose career ended in Boston, works as a club ambassador for the Mets; and Boston?s only No. 84, J.T. Snow, is a special assistant to Giants general manager Brian Sabean.

Jeopardy questions
1. Who is Grady Little? Francona?s predecessor was a longtime catcher in the minors and never played above Double A.

2. Who are the Athletics? They won the World Series five times in Philadelphia and have won it four times in Oakland.

3. Who is Omar Vizquel? The final out of Chris Bosio?s no-hitter was Ernest Riles? grounder to Vizquel, the Mariners? shortstop, currently of the Blue Jays.

Bill Ballou can be contacted by email at wballou@telegram.com.

Source: http://www.telegram.com/article/20120715/COLUMN35/107159926/1118/RSS01&source=rss

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