Egypt has an immense and lengthy history, but the country may just be writing its most important chapter now. Many of the voters I have spoken to over the past two days tell me the significance of Egypt's elections are neither about results nor outcome. In fact, the exact composition of the new Parliament will not be known until well into 2012. The biggest test to Egypt's elections will be their durability and credibility. Will they stick as a legitimate barometer of the popular will and help establish democratic stability?
Egypt needs to see these polls through to the end. It's not going to be fast. There will be no U.S.-style countdown till the polls close on election day, no electoral projections on legislative seats in the middle of the night. The elections, which will be staggered through November to January, must keep their momentum and not lose credibility as they move from round to round, governorate to governorate. They will take place over six weeks so that only 9 out of the 27 governorates ? the Egyptian equivalent of provinces or, in U.S. terms, states ? vote during any given round. These elections will most certainly test Egyptian patience, jurisprudence and the ability of political forces to compromise and coalesce around shared or prioritized values. (See pictures of Egyptians flocking to the polls.)
Egypt's own High Election Commission has already acknowledged some irregularities; and violations have already been reported to the General Prosecutors' office for further investigation. So far, it isn't enough to discredit or derail the process. Independent observers and Egyptian monitoring organizations have also expressed concerns about Egypt's electoral law decreed by the military after the revolution. Nonetheless, activists participating in this week's election hope there is one important principle that can emerge from this process that can pave the way for an Egyptian democracy: legitimacy.
Egyptians are still torn about how to move forward into the future: over the need for the military in these uncertain times, over resorting to constant and continued sit-ins in Tahrir Square. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which assumed interim rule over the country after Hosni Mubarak's fall, has taken advantage of the sentiments and pressed its own claims. Indeed, human-rights organizations, politicians and activists have warned that the SCAF has been monopolizing legitimacy ? illegitimately. (See pictures of the recent clashes between protesters and police.)
The SCAF repeatedly argues that there is no designated body to which it can hand over power and, thus, as the only legitimate supranational decisionmaking body in Egypt, it is entitled to make laws by decree. But its initial adherence to democracy and the principles espoused by the protesters in Tahrir Square appears to have eroded quickly. In March, shortly after Essam Sharaff was appointed Prime Minister by the SCAF, he went to Tahrir Square for a symbolic swearing-in ceremony and told the masses that he drew his "legitimacy from Tahrir." But Sharaff was not given the power either to form his own cabinet or adopt policies. When Sharaff's Finance Minister attempted to secure loans from the World Bank and IMF, the SCAF overruled the decision.
Despite constantly claiming to safeguard the revolution, the SCAF has dismissed many of the demands of Tahrir Square, including an end to military trials for civilians, the formation of a civilian council to aid in the transition to democracy. At a press conference of on the eve of the elections, the SCAF said, "Egypt is not Tahrir." But protesters are demonstrating once again that they are as potent a force as the military. They have argued and shown that ignoring the will of Tahrir Square can be perilous for Egypt's leaders (see Mubarak; Ahmed Shafik, who served briefly as Premier from Jan. 29 to March 3; and Sharaff, who resigned last week). And if there is one thing Egypt's revolution has proven it is that many Egyptians no longer fear their rulers and have the will to take on the rulers if they fail to deliver.
If Egyptians weather the storm of uncertainty that arise as these elections are taking place ? including legal challenges and disputes, as well as the confusion and shocks of politicking and alliances ? many voters hope to see the only alternative "legitimate" nationwide institution to the SCAF and the rule of the streets. If a legislature with a mandate from the people is in place, political forces, including the Muslim Brotherhood, believe the SCAF's monopoly on legitimacy will weaken significantly; meanwhile, a forum for arguing, advocating and designating the future path of the country will have been established ? one outside of Tahrir Square but far more representative of the will of the Egyptian people. (See why the past nine months have been a tense waiting game in Egypt.)
The next question then will be whether that newly elected Parliament will be able to define its role in the new Egypt. Liberal activists concede the Muslim Brotherhood, by way of its Freedom and Justice Party, is likely to be a dominant force in the new body. If the legislature then fails to assert itself as the fulcrum of Egyptian power, indeed, if it is perceived to be a pro-SCAF institution, then the Brotherhood itself is likely to be tarnished. But a robust Parliament will be welcomed by many people.
The military has repeatedly said it will hand over power only to an elected body. In the most simple of terms, a legislature that has the vocal support of millions of voters is too large for the SCAF to ignore or marginalize. At that point, if the military rulers then refuse to hand over power, there will be two institutions that can claim legitimacy. But, as pro-democracy advocates point out, only one of them will have a direct mandate from the people.
Mohyeldin is a foreign correspondent for NBC News based in Cairo.
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