WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Signs of a possible resolution to the standoff over Iran's nuclear enrichment program are generating considerable international enthusiasm, especially among oil companies and consumers anxious to see Iranian oil return to global markets.
But US congressional pressure to tighten sanctions and the reluctance of banks to risk violating sanctions will complicate efforts to achieve normalized relations between Iran and the West, and it is unlikely energy markets will see meaningful benefits soon. This will hold even if negotiators reach agreement, and may diminish Iran's belief in the positive impact of any offered sanctions relief.
Prominent leaders in the US Congress have recently signaled they will hold off on tough economic sanctions intended to completely cut off Iran's oil exports until after talks between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China) in Geneva later this month. But this restraint will be short-lived. Congressional strategy towards Iran is undergirded by the doctrine that major economic pain must be enhanced to exact large political concessions, even if Iran makes initial steps to meet P5+1 demands.
Congress can agree on little these days, but deep skepticism regarding the Islamic Republic enjoys wide bipartisan support. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's recent charm offensive has done little to overcome this dynamic. Even if Tehran agrees to a modest nuclear deal in Geneva, these moves may not be enough for Capitol Hill.
Senate foreign policy leaders Robert Menendez and Lindsey Graham have echoed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent urging to keep up, and, if necessary, strengthen sanctions to exact much more than "cosmetic concessions" from Iran. They called for "the maintenance and toughening of sanctions and a convincing threat of the use of force," indicating an extremely high bar for an accommodation that will meet their approval.
Regardless of the results in Geneva, a stringent sanctions measure could emerge from the Banking committee next month, and Congress may pass final legislation to close remaining Iranian oil export avenues this fall as an aggressive tactical move or response to Iranian backsliding fears.
Another factor ensuring Iran-related upward oil price pressure is the difficulty Tehran faces in transacting oil sales. International sanctions target both the physical and financial sides of Iranian oil deals, exposing to sanctions penalty the purchaser and the financial institutions supporting any arrangement with the Iranian Central Bank - the recipient of Iran's oil receipts.
Even if the European Union (EU) and President Obama waive or temporarily suspend oil sanctions in coming months, international banks will be extremely cautious about exposure to reputational risk and expensive penalties associated with Iranian oil trade. Risk-averse financial institutions will steer clear of transactions that could be quickly brought back under sanction if a possible nuclear agreement with Iran falters, or if the US Congress overrules temporary suspensions.
And then there is the matter of physical supply. Even if sanctions are lifted and financial institutions find a safe harbor for deals, the challenge and slow speed of bringing Iranian oil back online from fields in decline will maintain a pressure factor in the market. Iran now exports roughly 1 million barrels per day (bpd), down from about 2.5 million bpd in 2011, the period before imposition of the harshest US and EU oil sanctions. Unable to sell all its crude, Iran has been forced to store crude and shut in field production.
Restarting operations will require Iran to inject natural gas into oil wells. The industry expects this to further limit the supply of natural gas during cold weather months when domestic demand and export obligations are greater.
The Iranian oil establishment is making noises about new plans, new contracts and foreign investment. European oil giants Total and Shell are socializing the idea of turning up Iranian taps by lauding Iran's role in meeting global demand. But even under the best political circumstances oil exports will be slow to increase.
Iran is likely to remain a key factor putting upward pressure on oil prices for some time to come. A nuclear accommodation between Iran and the P5+1 facilitating a modest increase in the flow of Iranian oil to market would offer some marginal, temporary price relief. But deeply held international concern over Iranian nuclear ambitions, the political sustainability of any nuclear deal, and the challenge of replacing lost Iranian oil supply in the market will sustain a longer-term upward oil price impact.
The U.S. Congress has proved a formidable factor in starving Iran's economy of revenue and access to financial reserves stranded abroad, and most global financial institutions are skittish about getting caught in the crosshairs of US regulators that have not hesitated to impose expensive penalties. These factors are powerful price drivers that will persist until a fundamentally different and vastly more positive relationship between Iran and the international community is articulated, formalized and shown to last.
(Elizabeth Rosenberg is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy, Environment and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security and a former senior sanctions advisor at the US Treasury Department. The views expressed are her own.)
LOS ANGELES (AP) — A dry ice explosion occurred late Monday at Los Angeles International Airport, but there were no reports of any injuries or evacuations, authorities said.
The incident was reported shortly before 8:30 p.m. at the airport's Tom Bradley International Terminal. There was no immediate word where the dry ice was found or whether there was any significant damage.
Two other devices also were found at the airport but they did not explode, Detective Gus Villanueva said.
Investigators don't believe the incident is linked to terrorism and no threat was called into the airport, Villanueva said.
No flights were affected by the explosion, authorities said.
On Sunday night, someone planted a plastic bottle containing dry ice that exploded in an employee bathroom in LAX's terminal 2. Up to four flights were delayed after airport police halted security screening for more than an hour.
No arrests have been made in either case.
A bomb squad was at the airport late Monday and investigators from the LAPD's criminal conspiracy division were assisting, Villanueva said.
Elsevier launches first video journal in gastrointestinal endoscopyPublic release date: 12-Aug-2013 [ | E-mail | Share ]
Contact: Dr. Vanessa Quodt v.quodt@elsevier.com 49-895-383-355 Elsevier
New open access title: Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy now available on ScienceDirect
Munich, August 12, 2013 - Elsevier, a world-leading provider of scientific, technical and medical information products and services, is pleased to announce the launch of Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy (VJGIEN) an open access video journal providing scientists and clinicians with state-of-the-art visual information of gastrointestinal (GI) pathologies and step-by-step demonstrations and the first of its kind in the field of gastrointestinal endoscopy.
Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy offers high-quality video demonstrations of endoscopic findings and procedures, presenting the work of gastrointestinal experts in a new and easy to comprehend format. Additional concise articles added to each video detail the procedures and the findings in a bullet point style. All content - videos and articles - are peer-reviewed.
The unique format of the Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy provides two elements:
(1) An Expert Video Encyclopedia as a clinical reference tool with systematic step-by-step demonstrations of common and rare GI pathologies and up-to-date endoscopic procedures. The video sequences in this section are of high educational impact and allow e.g. endoscopists to recognize a wide array of pathological findings, review existing techniques, and acquire new endoscopic techniques for implementation in their own clinical work.
(2) A Scientific Video Journal for novel findings and techniques, demonstrating cutting edge endoscopic techniques and scientific results as well as clinical cases. In this section of Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy original research will be published reporting latest results in regard to endoscopic procedures used in the treatment of gastrointestinal diseases.
"GI endoscopy is developing rapidly. Modern endoscopic imaging offers a plethora of detailed visual information and endoscopic procedures are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex," said Professor Jrgen Pohl from Dr. Horst Schmidt Kliniken GmbH, Wiesbaden, Germany, founder and Editor-in-Chief. "Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy aims to be the premium and first choice international reference for endoscopic findings and procedures."
"Since endoscopic procedures are based on visual information the idea of this video publication is simple: why read if you can watch", said Dr. Till Meinert, Executive Publisher at Elsevier. "Together with the highly accredited international editorial board we are clearly focusing on our customers' needs."
###
The Expert Video Encyclopedia will be published in two special issues. Articles regarding Upper GI Tract are available by August 2013; articles regarding Lower GI Tract, by end of August 2013. The first articles of the Scientific Video Journal will be published in fall 2013.
Articles and videos are published open access in Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy and, therefore, freely available to readers on ScienceDirect.
About the Editorial Team
Professor Jrgen Pohl (Dr. Horst Schmidt Kliniken GmbH, Wiesbaden, Germany) founded Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy as Editor-in-Chief together with associate editor Professor Shou-jiang Tang (University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS, USA) and the editors Professor Friedrich Hagenmller (Asklepios Klinik Altona, Hamburg, Germany), Professor Prateek Sharma (University of Kansas, USA), and Professor Hironori Yamamoto (Jichi Medical University, Tochigi, Japan), in cooperation with the highly accredited international Editorial Board.
About Open Access Publishing at Elsevier
Elsevier has been providing open access publishing options since 2005. Today, researchers can choose to publish open access in over 1,600 established peer-reviewed journals as well as 46 full open access journals and these numbers will continue to grow rapidly. All of Elsevier's open access publications have been peer reviewed, ensuring that the broader community not only reads the latest research but that it is factual, original and of the highest quality and ethical standards. For more information about Elsevier's open access program, visit http://www.elsevier.com/openaccess
About Elsevier
Elsevier is a world-leading provider of scientific, technical and medical information products and services. The company works in partnership with the global science and health communities to publish more than 2,000 journals, including The Lancet and Cell, and close to 20,000 book titles, including major reference works from Mosby and Saunders. Elsevier's online solutions include ScienceDirect, Scopus, SciVal, Reaxys, ClinicalKey and Mosby's Suite, which enhance the productivity of science and health professionals, helping research and health care institutions deliver better outcomes more cost-effectively.
A global business headquartered in Amsterdam, Elsevier employs 7,000 people worldwide. The company is part of Reed Elsevier Group plc, a world leading provider of professional information solutions. The group employs more than 30,000 people, including more than 15,000 in North America. Reed Elsevier Group plc is owned equally by two parent companies, Reed Elsevier PLC and Reed Elsevier NV. Their shares are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RUK and ENL.
[ | E-mail | Share ]
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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.
Elsevier launches first video journal in gastrointestinal endoscopyPublic release date: 12-Aug-2013 [ | E-mail | Share ]
Contact: Dr. Vanessa Quodt v.quodt@elsevier.com 49-895-383-355 Elsevier
New open access title: Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy now available on ScienceDirect
Munich, August 12, 2013 - Elsevier, a world-leading provider of scientific, technical and medical information products and services, is pleased to announce the launch of Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy (VJGIEN) an open access video journal providing scientists and clinicians with state-of-the-art visual information of gastrointestinal (GI) pathologies and step-by-step demonstrations and the first of its kind in the field of gastrointestinal endoscopy.
Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy offers high-quality video demonstrations of endoscopic findings and procedures, presenting the work of gastrointestinal experts in a new and easy to comprehend format. Additional concise articles added to each video detail the procedures and the findings in a bullet point style. All content - videos and articles - are peer-reviewed.
The unique format of the Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy provides two elements:
(1) An Expert Video Encyclopedia as a clinical reference tool with systematic step-by-step demonstrations of common and rare GI pathologies and up-to-date endoscopic procedures. The video sequences in this section are of high educational impact and allow e.g. endoscopists to recognize a wide array of pathological findings, review existing techniques, and acquire new endoscopic techniques for implementation in their own clinical work.
(2) A Scientific Video Journal for novel findings and techniques, demonstrating cutting edge endoscopic techniques and scientific results as well as clinical cases. In this section of Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy original research will be published reporting latest results in regard to endoscopic procedures used in the treatment of gastrointestinal diseases.
"GI endoscopy is developing rapidly. Modern endoscopic imaging offers a plethora of detailed visual information and endoscopic procedures are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex," said Professor Jrgen Pohl from Dr. Horst Schmidt Kliniken GmbH, Wiesbaden, Germany, founder and Editor-in-Chief. "Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy aims to be the premium and first choice international reference for endoscopic findings and procedures."
"Since endoscopic procedures are based on visual information the idea of this video publication is simple: why read if you can watch", said Dr. Till Meinert, Executive Publisher at Elsevier. "Together with the highly accredited international editorial board we are clearly focusing on our customers' needs."
###
The Expert Video Encyclopedia will be published in two special issues. Articles regarding Upper GI Tract are available by August 2013; articles regarding Lower GI Tract, by end of August 2013. The first articles of the Scientific Video Journal will be published in fall 2013.
Articles and videos are published open access in Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy and, therefore, freely available to readers on ScienceDirect.
About the Editorial Team
Professor Jrgen Pohl (Dr. Horst Schmidt Kliniken GmbH, Wiesbaden, Germany) founded Video Journal and Encyclopedia of GI Endoscopy as Editor-in-Chief together with associate editor Professor Shou-jiang Tang (University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS, USA) and the editors Professor Friedrich Hagenmller (Asklepios Klinik Altona, Hamburg, Germany), Professor Prateek Sharma (University of Kansas, USA), and Professor Hironori Yamamoto (Jichi Medical University, Tochigi, Japan), in cooperation with the highly accredited international Editorial Board.
About Open Access Publishing at Elsevier
Elsevier has been providing open access publishing options since 2005. Today, researchers can choose to publish open access in over 1,600 established peer-reviewed journals as well as 46 full open access journals and these numbers will continue to grow rapidly. All of Elsevier's open access publications have been peer reviewed, ensuring that the broader community not only reads the latest research but that it is factual, original and of the highest quality and ethical standards. For more information about Elsevier's open access program, visit http://www.elsevier.com/openaccess
About Elsevier
Elsevier is a world-leading provider of scientific, technical and medical information products and services. The company works in partnership with the global science and health communities to publish more than 2,000 journals, including The Lancet and Cell, and close to 20,000 book titles, including major reference works from Mosby and Saunders. Elsevier's online solutions include ScienceDirect, Scopus, SciVal, Reaxys, ClinicalKey and Mosby's Suite, which enhance the productivity of science and health professionals, helping research and health care institutions deliver better outcomes more cost-effectively.
A global business headquartered in Amsterdam, Elsevier employs 7,000 people worldwide. The company is part of Reed Elsevier Group plc, a world leading provider of professional information solutions. The group employs more than 30,000 people, including more than 15,000 in North America. Reed Elsevier Group plc is owned equally by two parent companies, Reed Elsevier PLC and Reed Elsevier NV. Their shares are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RUK and ENL.
[ | E-mail | Share ]
?
AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - For investors trying to pinpoint when the Federal Reserve will likely end its massive bond-buying program, the message from researchers at a pair of influential regional Fed banks was clear: don't bother.
More crucial in terms of monetary policy's impact on U.S. growth and inflation will be signals from the U.S. central bank on when it will start to raise short-term interest rates from their current near-zero level, economists at the San Francisco Fed and the New York Fed wrote in the latest issue of the San Francisco Fed's Economic Letter published on Monday.
The Fed's bond-buying programs have given a moderate boost to the economy, but they would have far less impact without the Fed's simultaneous promise to keep rates low, they showed.
The finding, they said, goes not only for past rounds of quantitative easing, but also for the Fed's current and third round, known as QE3.
"Our analysis suggests that communication about when the Fed will begin to raise the federal funds rate from its near-zero level will be more important than signals about the precise timing of the end of QE3," San Francisco Fed senior economist Vasco Curdia and New York Fed senior economist Andrea Ferrero wrote.
Bond yields surged and stocks tanked in June after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank could begin to pare back its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases later this year, ending in the middle of next year when the unemployment rate is likely to be around 7 percent.
Investors were apparently taken by surprise that the central bank intended to wean markets of its program so soon, Fed officials have since said, expressing their own surprise at the strength of the reaction.
Policymakers have since moved, with some success, to tamp down the view that reducing the bond-buying does not bring the Fed near to raising rates.
And even the most hawkish policymakers, the ones who most want to end QE3, are at pains to emphasize that ending bond buys does not mean the Fed has backed away from its promise to keep rates low until the unemployment rate falls to at least 6.5 percent, as long as the inflation outlook stays benign.
The research published Monday shows why such a promise is so important.
The Fed's second round of asset purchases, totaling $600 billion, added about 0.13 percentage point to GDP growth and about 0.03 percentage point to inflation, the analysis showed.
Without the Fed's promise to keep rates low, the researchers said, QE2 would have added just 0.04 percentage point to GDP and 0.02 percentage point to inflation.
"Forward guidance is essential for quantitative easing to be effective," the economists wrote.
That sentiment is in line with the views of a number of Fed officials who have suggested that the Fed's main policy tool is, and should be, rates rather than bond purchases.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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Public release date: 12-Aug-2013
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